2026 NFL season, half-PPR rankings
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  4. Predicting usage

Category leaders

Best at predicting player usage, 2026

  • Half-PPR
  • Through week 7
  • Benchmark: FantasyPros consensus

Which fantasy experts best predict player usage?

Mick Ciallela best predicted player usage through week 7, +0.8 skill points ahead of the FantasyPros consensus on expected points over 21 position-weeks.

Results

Best at predicting player usage, 2026, 2026 half-PPR through week 7. Benchmark: Consensus ±0.0. Expected points: ffopportunity (ffverse), from nflverse play-by-play.
RankRankerTypevs consensusSample
1Mick CiallelaIndividual+0.821 position-weeks
2FootballguysConsensus+0.428 position-weeks
3Yahoo Sports ConsensusConsensus+0.028 position-weeks
4FFTodayTeam−1.228 position-weeks
5Draft SharksConsensus−1.428 position-weeks
6FF ToolboxConsensus−2.428 position-weeks
7ESPN app projectionsTeam−2.828 position-weeks
8Eric MoodyIndividual−4.728 position-weeks
9Tristan H. CockcroftIndividual−5.328 position-weeks
10Matt BowenIndividual−5.928 position-weeks
11Liz LozaIndividual−6.028 position-weeks
12Daniel DoppIndividual−6.328 position-weeks
13Mike ClayIndividual−6.628 position-weeks
14Field YatesIndividual−7.228 position-weeks
15Eric KarabellIndividual−7.428 position-weeks

About this category

Weekly fantasy scores carry a lot of luck: a long touchdown, a vultured goal-line carry, a fumble returned for six. This category grades each QB, RB, WR and TE ranking against expected fantasy points instead: what each player should have scored from their targets, carries, air yards and field position. Expected points come from ffopportunity (part of ffverse), a model built on nflverse play-by-play, converted to half-PPR scoring.

Each week counts as the gap between a ranker's skill score on expected points and the FantasyPros consensus's own score in the same week and position, then the gaps are averaged. That keeps the comparison fair between rankers who cover different positions, since quarterback indexes naturally run lower than running back indexes. A ranker needs 12 position-weeks. A positive number means the ranker anticipated usage better than the consensus did.

What are expected fantasy points?
The points a player would typically score given their usage (targets, carries, air yards, red-zone looks), estimated by the ffopportunity model from nflverse play-by-play.
Why measure usage instead of results?
Usage is the part of a player's week a ranker can reasonably forecast. Grading on it removes much of the touchdown and big-play luck in a single week.